Dispersion in poker: why everyone can win

Poker is a unique game that combines elements of strategy, psychology, and, of course, luck. It is thanks to luck, or, as it is called in poker, variance, that poker has become one of the most popular games in the world.

Unlike chess, where a weaker player has practically no chance against a professional, in poker even a beginner can win a pot against an experienced player. This makes poker accessible and exciting for a wide range of people.

Why does this happen?  The thing is that in poker, especially in the short term, luck plays a significant role. For example, an amateur can get several strong hands in a row and win large pots, even if their opponent is a professional player with many years of experience.

In the long run, of course, the professional will be in the black thanks to their skill and understanding of the game, but within a single session or even several days, luck can be on the amateur's side. It is this unpredictability that makes poker such an exciting game.

Variance in poker is a statistical concept that describes the deviation of results from the expected value.  Simply put, it is the difference between what should happen in theory and what happens in practice.

For example, if you have an 80% chance of winning a hand, it doesn't mean that you are guaranteed to win. In 20% of cases, you will lose, and this will be a manifestation of variance.

Dispersion is what makes poker unpredictable.  Even if you play perfectly, you can lose several times in a row due to unfortunate circumstances. And vice versa, even if you make mistakes, you can win several times in a row thanks to luck.

Example: In GG Club you are playing a hand with top pair against an opponent with a draw. You have an 80% chance of winning, but your opponent hits a straight on the river. This is a manifestation of variance.

Why is dispersion important for beginners?

Variance makes poker accessible to everyone. Even a beginner can beat a professional thanks to luck. However, in the long run, skills and strategy play a key role.

Interesting fact: Tom Dwan, a poker legend, started his career with freerolls and turned $50 into millions, despite high variance.  🚀

To better understand variance, you need to understand the concept of winrate.

Winrate is a measure of a player's profitability, which is measured in the number of blinds (or monetary units) won over a certain number of hands.

For example: a winrate of 10 bb/100 means that the player wins 10 big blinds per 100 hands.  That is, the winrate is not tied to money (10bb/100 in monetary terms will depend on the limit played)

Winrate is directly related to variance.  The higher your winrate, the less impact variance has on your results in the long run.  However, in the short term, even players with a high winrate can experience losing periods due to variance.

❕ If your winrate in Hold'em is 10bb/100 hands, then statistically playing at 0 for more than 10 thousand hands is a very unlikely event.   With a winrate of 3-4bb/100, it is quite possible to play at 0 for 50 thousand hands or more.

The influence of winrate on variance

Tip: Choose rooms with the best rakeback (for example, CC Poker with 70% return) to compensate for losses from rake and variance.

However, even with a high winrate in Cash games or ROI in MTTs, variance can be very significant.

For example, professional players can be in the red for months due to bad cards or poor decisions.  This is especially noticeable in tournaments, where the variance is significantly higher than in cash games.

• NLH: The influence of variance is felt, but it is less prolonged.  For example, with a winrate of 5 blinds per 100 hands, variance can be felt over 20,000 hands.
• PLO5: The influence of variance is more prolonged.  Due to the larger number of variables and frequent splits, variance can be felt over 100,000 hands or more.
• MTT: The influence of variance in tournaments can last for months or even years. Due to high variance, even professional players can remain in the red for a long time until they hit a "lucky streak" and reach the final tables.

In PPPoker, a tournament with a $10 buy-in can yield $1000, but due to variance, it's harder to profit than in cash games.

Variance in poker is measured using standard deviation, which shows how much a player's results can deviate from the expected value.  The higher the standard deviation, the greater the variance.

Several factors influence dispersion:

1. Game type: Variance is higher in tournaments than in cash games due to a larger number of variables (e.g., changing blind structure).

2. Playing style: Aggressive players typically experience higher variance than passive players.

3. Number of players: The more players at the table, the lower the variance, as everyone plays a tighter range and the game is more predictable.
Heads-up play, or 1-on-1, is the most susceptible to variance. In heads-up games, players utilize almost 100% of their range, and the game is very aggressive, which makes the variance sky-high. A player who has an expected value of 15bb/100 can easily lose 10 buy-ins in a session.

4. Poker variant: Variance is higher in Omaha than in Texas Hold'em due to the greater number of possible hand combinations.

❕ In MTTs, professional players consider their results over the course of a YEAR.  This speaks to the enormous variance in MTTs.

Poker is a game where even the best players encounter luck and variance.  Understanding variance helps maintain composure during losing streaks and maximize profits from winning sessions.

Want to learn how to predict your results, manage risks, and minimize the impact of variance on your bankroll?

In the next article, we will discuss how to use a dispersion calculator to increase your income and the stability of your game.

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Good luck at the tables!